Arsenal - Monaco, 1/8 Final, 1st leg

Bonjour lads,
So, yesterday talks weren't all nonsense, although that was quite devastating when Suarez scored his first goal on 16th minute, just 20 seconds later then it was needed. The others thoughts were spot on, which is still considered to be profitable result at the end of the day.

Today's fixtures are far less exciting with obvious underdogs.
So without any further ado let's get to it.

Arsenal - Monaco.
The season, which at its very beginning (June-July to be exact) promised to be loud success in the domestic championship turned out to be the ordinary one, where Monaco competing for place in Europa League for the next year. But given that they lost their  brilliant Colombians Falcao and James (wow, that's a lot of firepower) it barely got anyone by surprise. Nobody expected them to advance to play-off and yet they managed it thanks to brilliant defensive play. They conceded 1 (one) goal at the group stage. And their current form isn't bad either.

Arsenal, on the other hand, advance in play-off round in 15th consecutive years. During four last seasons they weren't able to go any further than 1/8. They won 8 out last 9 games in EPL and being absolute delight to watch. In the light of key players recoveries from injuries they look very self-confident now. Due to the injuries Debuchy, Arteta, Ramsey and Oxlade-Chamberlain will be missing today.

I expect typical lower total game, where nobody can afford to pay for mistakes.
Now to the picks:

Only one team to score in the game

Arsenal to score first.

 Total goals less then 3.






That's it for today. Enjoy the game!

 

 

Manchester City - Barcelona, 1/8 Final, 1st leg

Long, probably, the most awaited game of this round finally happens today.

Making a bet just a week ago would be the easiest decision you had to make. Given the dire performance of Man City during quite some time in EPL and spectacular Barca's winning streak (matching Pep-team best streak of 11 consecutive victories) it was clear that City was nowhere near to equal to Spanish contender. But last weekend seeded a reasonable doubt regarding Barca's transcendence over City, so lets try figure out what to expect today.

This season Barcelona made noticeable transition from tiki-taka to fast, aggressive vertical football with counter attacks, where ball control is no longer crucial for the game. And City (aka English Barca...okay, not that common..All right, I just made it up, but just because of Blue's style with lots of ball possession and through passing) in some way might benefit from theirs experience facing a lot of domestic teams playing, or at least trying to play like that.

I think we will see a high pressure from City during first 15 minutes. If they score they'll park bus and play counter attacks (and they have resources to do so. With Aguero, Silva and Nasri). But if Barcelona scores first this where it comes interesting, City will be forced to play open game and I don't see them standing a chance against Messi, Neymar and Suarez. Remembering  that YaYa Toure will miss the game due to his disqualification he got against CSKA I still have very little doubts about positive result for Barcelona, where a tie, other than 0-0, also considered to be the success.


So, to the picks:

Barcelona scores over 1.5 goals total.

 

First goal of the game scored 1-15 minutes.

Both team to score in the game.

Good luck and enjoy the game!

Match Day 5

Hello everyone,

Before suggesting the actual bets today, I would like to to talk a bit about different kinds of the odds you can make. This is extremely straightforward but crucial to know before we can go further:

• Single
• A Single is a bet on 1 selection in one event. 
• Double
• A Double consists of 1 bet involving 2 selections in different events.
• Treble
• A Treble consists of 1 bet involving 3 selections in different events. 
• Accumulator
• An accumulator bet involves the number of selections you choose to win from different events.
  An accumulator with four selections is referred to as a four-fold; an accumulator with five selections is referred to as a five-fold and so on.

 One simple rule -  All bets must be successful to get a return.

    Therefore, trying to eliminate the risks as much as possible seems to be very reasonable.  

Example would be: 

You consider to bet the amount of 100 dollars and expect to get a return of 175 dollars. Hence, you have to bet for the event with coefficient of 1.75. Clearly, that's a pretty risky bet where possibility of success would be roughly 50%. Instead, you can pick two events, which occurring likelihood would be 1.35 (80%) and  1.33 (81%) and use double strategy. This implies multiplication of the coefficients. 1.35*1.33= 1.8 and the probability of two independent events occurring would be 64.8%. 

Of course it takes a little more then simple multiplication but it describes concept pretty clear I hope.

So, today I want us to try double strategy and our picks are:

25 Nov

14:45 EST

APOEL Nicosia   v   Barcelona

Barca doesn't impress lately, but they racing with PSG for the first place in the group and simply cannot let to lose points against so much less skilled side. 

Barcelona win for 1.25

25 Nov

14:45 EST

Man City   v   Bayern Munich

Manchester has all the chances to eliminate them-self from the competition tomorrow. They will be missing YaYa Toure, who's absolutely irreplaceable for them. However, the fact that they play at home against opposite side which already has taken care of all their tasks gives me confidence that we will see exciting game where attacking football will take over.

Man City over 0.5 goal (Man City to score) for 1.33

1.25*1.33=1.6625

That's all for today,

Good Luck!

Match Day 2

Hello folks,
I finally ready to share some of my thoughts regarding betting on soccer, champions league to be exact. Our betting environment would be Canadian William Hill. Obviously, those of you who's willing to bet real money have to create an account in this, or any other company and deposit some amount of money (usually it's 10-15 bucks), I won't go into the details here, that's something you don't need my help with.
There are 3 price formats (American, Decimal and Fractional). I'm doing all my bets in decimal format, it's the habit I obtained over the years, however you free to choose anything that fits you.

So, without any further ado, I'd like to get straight to the business. 

There are some really great games take place this match day (30th October and 1st September). I stopped my eye on one Tuesday's game.

1. PSG -Barcelona. Wannabe vs Titan if you prefer. Both teams show pretty solid defending skills since season has started, PSG conceded just 5 in 8 played games and Barca still doesn't know what it feels like when your opponent scores. Sure thing that it's not gonna last forever for Spanish team, but I don't see a lot of reasons why PSG would be capable of scoring more than once, Teams don't have significant problems with their squads. Given that the game isn't crucial I'd say they will play in energy saving mode. Therefore my bet for the game is TOTAL GOALS UNDER 3 for 1.95. 

Good luck and let the odds be always in our favor :) 

More to come...